Golden Globe Predictions

Well awards season is in full swing.  Various guilds (such as the Screen Actor's Guild, Director's Guild, Producer's Guild, Writer's Guild, etc.) are announcing or have already announced their nominations and the Academy Award nominations will be announced next week.  I'll read about those various guild nominations but I won't be posting anything about them.  The Academy Award nominations I'll be posting a "reaction" to them just like I did for the Golden Globes.

But enough rambling.  Time to predict the Golden Globes.  Maybe I'm better at picking these than I am at NFL games...although If I remember right I didn't do very well in my Golden Globe picks from last year.  Oh well, on with the picks and some comments about each.  My picks are highlighted in red, except for one of them.  





BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
12 Years A Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Philomena
Rush

COMMENTS:  No change in what I've seen since my nomination reactions post.  I'm going with the heavily favored '12 Years A Slave' but 'Gravity' also has a legitimate shot at winning this.    

 

BEST MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
American Hustle
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street

COMMENTS:  Since my "Reactions" post I was able to see 'American Hustle' (didn't really care for it all that much) and 'The Wolf of Wall Street' (liked it quite a bit).  'Her' and 'Inside Llewyn Davis' will be here this weekend.  'Nebraska' has been here for a few weeks but I havent had a chance to go see it.  Anyway, the hype is surrounding 'American Hustle' and while I didn't exactly care for it all that much there just hasn't been a whole lot of buzz about the other nominees.  If 'Hustle' doesn't win, maybe 'Wolf of Wall Street' or 'Inside Llewyn Davis' could sneak in. 



BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
Idris Elba, Mandela:  Long Walk To Freedom
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

COMMENTS:  This is Ejiofor's to lose.  If someone he DOESN'T win, I see it going to McConaughey.  Redford has an extremely slight chance at an upset.




BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix, Her

COMMENTS:  My initial gut instinct was to go with Christian Bale, but then I had another gut feeling about Bruce Dern.  He did win Best Actor at Cannes, and sometimes award shows like to honor seasoned actors that have been praised in the past, but haven't gotten a whole lot of awards recognition or simply haven't won yet (i.e. Christopher Plummer's awards sweep for his role in 'Beginners', Jeff Bridges for 'Crazy Heart').  However, if Dern doesn't win, honestly it's anybody's game.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

COMMENTS:  Fassbender VS. Leto.  Both transform into their roles and it honestly makes you forget that you're watching these actors:  you're watching these characters.  I'll give the edge to Leto.  If he doesn't win, Fassbender better win.  But who knows.  Maybe 'American Hustle' has a huge night and Cooper wins this.



BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Kate Winslet, Labor Day

COMMENTS:  Since my reactions post I've now seen TWO of these performances (Bullock and Thompson).  I would love it if either of them won, but all the buzz has been about Blanchett.  Something about actresses in Woody Allen movies...they seem to garner A LOT of acclaim.  If Blanchett doesn't win, then I'd put money on Bullock or Thompson.



BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
Meryl Streep, August:  Osage County

COMMENTS:  It's Adams VS. Streep.  I'll stick with the buzz that 'American Hustle' is getting.  If Gerwig somehow wins I'll be upset.  



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'O, 12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts, August:  Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

COMMENTS:  Lawrence has been getting a lot of buzz for what in my opinion is a miscast role.  Nyong'O's role is by far the more powerful and more emotional performance.  If Nyong'O doesn't win this, it's probably because 'American Hustle' had a huge night and J-Law gets her second Golden Globe.  



BEST ANIMATED FILM
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Frozen

COMMENTS:  Usually with award shows, you can never go wrong with picking Pixar.  But considering that 'Monsters University' wasn't nominated, you go with the next option:  Disney.  If 'Frozen' doesn't win....I don't know.  Maybe 'Despicable Me 2'.

 


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Blue Is The Warmest Color
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Past
The Wind Rises

COMMENTS:  Of course I wasn't going to highlight that in red.  It's been getting universal acclaim ever since it debuted at Cannes, so I'm sticking with it.  If 'Blue' doesn't win, maybe 'The Past' or 'The Hunt'.  Those alternate choices are shots in the dark.    

  

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Atlas" - The Hunger Games:  Catching Fire
"Let It Go" - Frozen
"Ordinary Love" - Mandela:  Long Walk To Freedom
"Please Mr. Kennedy" - Inside Llewyn Davis
"Sweeter Than Fiction" - One Chance

COMMENTS:  Another safe bet for picking awards shows and original song categories:  Stick With Disney.  If 'Let It Go' doesn't win....um....maybe 'Please Mr. Kennedy' or "Ordinary Love".    



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
All Is Lost
Mandela:  Long Walk To Freedom
Gravity
The Book Thief
12 Years A Slave

COMMENTS:  Well, why not 'Gravity'?  If it doesn't win then maybe 'All Is Lost' or '12 Years A Slave'.

 

BEST SCREENPLAY
Spike Jones, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan, Philomena
John Ridley, 12 Years A Slave
Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle

COMMENTS:  Once again I'll stick with the buzz that 'American Hustle' is getting.  Honestly if Singer and Russell don't win it's anybody's game, although the lone real long shots would be Pope and Coogan. 
 

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle

COMMENTS:  Usually Best Picture and Best Director go hand in hand.  If McQueen doesn't win this, then it's because 'American Hustle' is having a huge night and Russell wins.  Or perhaps 'Gravity' has a huge night and Cuaron wins.